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The Derailed Rail Baltic

Esa Nurkka, 24.2.2015

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania signed RB Rail's shareholders´ agreement on the 28th of October 2014 in Riga. The Baltic joint company was needed to coordinate the Rail Baltic II project and to submit a joint finance application to European Commission. Unfortunately "one common finance application" proved to be too ambitious a target. While Estonia and Latvia had no problem with committing to it, the Lithuanians once again opted to stick to their very own agenda.


RB Rail’s Recent History
  • 21.6.2014: The Baltic Prime Ministers´ Joint statementstressed the importance to prepare and submit the joint Rail Baltic/Rail Baltica CEF application for the first CEF call for the project proposals to be opened in from September 2014 through February 2015”.
  • 23.8.2014: The Baltic countries were supposed to launch the RB Rail joint company in Riga as a part of Baltic Way 25th anniversary celebration, but due to different views on shareholder agreement’s wording, the signing ceremony was cancelled.
  • 28.10.2014: After onerous negotiations, RB Rail was eventually established in Riga. To get the signatures on the dotted line, some compromises were needed: 
o Estonia and Latvia did not want to carry any risk on the financing of Kaunas – Vilnius connection, and they got “each party co-finances the railway construction only within its territory” clause in the agreement.

o Lithuania wanted to get the “provision for Vilnius connection” in the contract, as well as the statement that “owner of the rail infrastructure in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia is the country in which the infrastructure is located”.
  • 5.12.2014: The Prime Ministers of the three Baltic states met in Maardu, Estonia, in a Baltic Council meeting. Once again, to get the joint statement signed, compromises were needed:
o Estonia and Latvia managed to get the phrase “a fast conventional double track 1435 mm gauge electrified railway line with the maximum design speed of 240 km/h on the Route from Tallinn through Pärnu-Riga-Panevezys-Kaunas to Lithuania-Polish border” in the statement, and Lithuania’s Prime Minister, Ms. Laimdota Straujuma did indeed sign the paper. Lithuanian transport minister Sinkevicius would have probably refused to sign such a commitment, but luckily this meeting was on a prime-ministerial level.

o Lithuanian prime minister would not have signed the paper without the Vilnius clause, and thus “as proposed by AECOM study with a connection of Vilnius-Kaunas as part of the Route” was added to the statement.
o Does “from Kaunas via Vilnius to Riga and Tallinn” really mean that to get from Kaunas to Riga, you need to visit Vilnius?

o Does “implementation of the project from Kaunas via Vilnius to Riga and Tallinn” mean that Lithuania does not intend to build a high speed dual track connection between the Polish border and Kaunas?


Money matters

RB Rail is going to apply for 461 million euros from the first round of financing. Estonia is looking for 191 million euros, Latvia 240 million euros and Lithuania 30 million. This financing is for preliminary studies, cost-benefit analysis and designing the route.

Besides the 30 million euros applied through the Baltic joint venture, Lithuania is applying separately for 160 million euros to be used for “acquisition of land for public purposes” as well as “construction and partial electrification of a rail section between Rokai and Palemonas”. It is easy to see why this 160 million application is not a part of the RB Rail application. Rokai – Palemonas -section is a part of the old rail Baltic I project, which has nothing to do with the high speed double track Rail Baltic II project or RB Rail.

Lithuania has also other reasons for a separate financing application. According to minister Sinkevicius, the bulk of Rail Baltic works in Lithuania will probably be carried out through the Lithuanian railway monopoly Lietuvos Geležinkeliai (never mind the EU procurement rules…), and the VAT on that work should therefore be collected by Lithuania, and not Latvia.



Rail Baltic: The Mother of All Bottle Necks?

Rail Baltic is one of the European Commission’s TEN-T Priority Projects, and its aim is to close the gaps between Member States' transport networks and remove bottlenecks that hamper the smooth functioning of the internal market. The current Rail Baltic 2 project and RB Rail are based on AECOM’s feasibility study.

AECOM's study suggests that a 728 kilometer double track 1435 mm 240 km/h railway would be constructed from Tallinn all the way down to the Lithuanian/Polish border. At the moment it seems that the Estonian and Latvian parts of Rail Baltic might be well on track, while the Lithuanians have shown very little interest in constructing the high speed Rail Baltic railway line connecting Latvia and Poland via Kaunas.

Minister of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Lithuania Rimantas Sinkevičius is going to meet Violeta Bulc, European Commissioner for Mobility and Transport in Brussels on 24th of February 2015, ie. today. It will be interesting to see how Ms. Bulc reacts to Lithuania’s initiative. If the chances of getting a proper Rail Baltic connection across Lithuania look slim, how could the European Commission award financing even for Estonia and Latvia? Rail Baltica's Estonian project manager Miiko Peris stated yesterday, that a common application has a better chance of being funded by the European Commission.

Rail Baltic with no connection to Europe would be purely and utterly infeasible.

UPDATE: Lithuanian Ministry of Transport announced in the evening that the meeting between Mr Sinkevičius and Ms Bulc was "constructive and efficient". They agreed that "the TEN-T Core network has to be developed mainly by establishing the cross-border missing links, and, therefore, the project “Rail Baltica” is one of the key components of it". Wow.

The most interesting piece of news can be found at the end of the press release: Lithuania will apply for a total of EUR 365 million of co-funding under the CEF cohesion envelope. We do not know what this actually means, but here is an educated guess: Lithuania will still apply independently for 165 million to finance Rail Baltic I project, and Lithuania's original 30 million euros stake in the RB Rail's pan-Baltic application has been raised to 200 million euros.

Project Rail Baltic - Now or Never? (part 1/3)

I wrote a brief report on the past 12 months of project Rail Baltic. The text was translated into Lithuanian language, and it was published on 11.7.2014 in the Lithuanian business daily Verslo žinios. All the comments and conclusions presented in the article are based on information that is available in public internet sites. 

As Verslo žinios operates only on Lithuanian language, I will publish the original English language script here. I have also added some links to the sources of information. Further Finnish language comments on Rail Baltic and other related issues can also be found at Baltirail Association's web site.


Project Rail Baltic - Now or Never?

Esa Nurkka 11.7.2014 (originally published in Verslo žinios)
Prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania met on 21 June 2014 in Tallinn to review the progress of Rail Baltic project. After the meeting the prime ministers signed a joint statement, where they reiterated, recognized and welcomed various Rail Baltic related issues. The news headlines after the meeting were positive, but reality is much harsher. There is a considerable risk that establishing the Rail Baltic joint company could be delayed to indefinite future.

Rail Baltic is important for Europe

The European Union’s transport infrastructure policy aims to close the gaps between Member States' transport networks and remove bottlenecks that hamper the smooth functioning of the internal market. Rail Baltic is one of the European Commission’s TEN-T Priority Projects, and for that reason up to 85 % of Rail Baltic’s 3.6 Billion euros budget could be financed from the European Cohesion Fund.

As President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso puts it: “Rail Baltic is one of the key projects in the pan-European Transport Networks policy. No other project originating from the Baltic States can show an added value for the entire EU that could come close.” Rail Baltic is important for, not just Lithuania or Baltic, but for the whole Europe.

Rail Baltic would be important for Finland, too. About 80 % of Finland’s foreign trade is transported in ships, and a good part of that volume could be transported by rail. On longer term the possible melting of polar ice and opening of The Northern Sea Route between Europe and Asia could add to Rail Baltic’s volumes remarkably.

Rail Baltic train is moving, but slowly
Rail Baltic was chosen as one of TEN-T Priority Projects already in 2005, and the real work started in 2012. The project and its financing decisions are based on AECOM’s extensive Rail Baltic feasibility study from 2011, which suggests a straight-forward Tallinn-Riga-Kaunas-Polish railway. A lot of work has been done since, but progress has been rather sluggish. There have been two major challenges: Time and Vilnius.

Time is running, and deadlines for setting up the Rail Baltic joint company have come and gone. The previous unconditional deadline was the end of 2013, but that one was missed. The current target is to launch the joint company in August and deliver the Connecting Europe Facility finance application in September. At the moment this target looks rather ambitious.

Time is running out because of 
Vilnius. In July 2013 Minister of Transport Rimantas Sinkevičius expressed a wish that Rail Baltic could also include Vilnius, and even in December 2013 Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevicius referred to the Vilnius line merely as ”more of a bargaining point. In less than one year this humble wish has evolved into the decisive factor of the whole Rail Baltic project.

Transport Ministry of Lithuania has worked diligently to get Vilnius added to the current Rail Baltic project. Hats off to Mr. Sinkevičius and his team: They have skillfully and aggressively utilized every negotiation tactic in the book, and thus managed to outsmart their negotiating parties.

The Lithuanian Master Class of Getting What You Want in a Negotiation

In both cases ministers from Estonia and Latvia signed declarations or joint statements, which contain several indefinite clauses about adding Kaunas-Vilnius -connection to current Rail Baltic project, and even getting 85 % financing for it from Connecting Europe Facility. Signing these papers will unfortunately make finding the proper wording for the shareholder agreement a rather demanding task.

Two views on Vilnius

There are two different interpretations of the 21.6.2014 statement.

Estonians have nothing against the Vilnius connection per se, assuming that the EU financing is in place. Unfortunately the financing can’t be settled until the feasibility study on Kaunas-Vilnius -connection has been completed and the project has been found eligible for EU financing and the decisions have been made in Brussels. That would take several years. Another Estonian prerequisite is that the preparation of Vilnius connection may not slow down the work on the main line, which leads via Kaunas to Poland.

The Lithuanian view is, however, very different. According to Ričardas Slapšys of Transport Ministry of Lithuania, “Stipulation of Vilnius in the shareholders’ agreement commits all three countries to seek and obtain European funding for this part”. Dainius Budrys, the CEO of Lithuanian Rail Baltica Statyba, has statedI think the successful completion of the negotiations in the near future will lead to establishing a joint venture in the Baltic states, but how soon it will be done - depends on the Latvians and Estonians.” It seems that the Lithuanians know what they want, and they also seem to know how to get it.

Rail Baltic’s future looks dim
If Lithuania sticks to its claim that the construction and CEF financing of Kaunas-Vilnius connection should be included in the original Rail Baltic contract, the future of Rail Baltic does not look good. A shareholder agreement with such clauses cannot be signed anytime soon. The EU financing decisions are onerous processes that take a lot of time, and amending the EU regulation in order to reallocate the financing makes things even more complicated.

The negotiation teams of the Baltic countries are currently working on the shareholder agreement, and a lot of work needs to be done to solve the disputes between Estonia and Lithuania. It would be great if the joint company would be established in August, and the financing application for Connecting Europe Facility could be delivered in September. Unfortunately Estonia’s Rail Baltic project leader Indrek Sirp as well as EC’s Rail Baltic coordinator Pavel Telička have both recently resigned, which won’t make things any easier.

The whole Rail Baltic project is in jeopardy now. The 3 Billion euros earmarked for this project may be used somewhere else, if the Baltic countries are not able to leave the joint application for Connecting Europe Facility in September. There are EU countries who would be willing to accept 3 Billion euros financing from EU in a blink of an eye, and they would definitely deliver the financing application in Brussels without delay.

Esa Nurkka

The writer is an independent observer from Finland, whose comments and views are based solely on information available on public internet sites, mainly The Lithuania Tribune and the Ministry of Transport and Communication of Lithuania’s web site.



Links to useful background information: