Rail Baltic - Connecting Europe or Connecting Vilnius? (part 3/3)

Rail Baltic - Connecting Europe or Connecting Vilnius?

Esa Nurkka, 12.9.2014

Project Rail Baltic’s target is to link the three Baltic countries and Finland to the European 1435 mm rail network in Poland and the rest of Europe. The first part of the project (Rail Baltic 1) involved refurbishing the existing 1520 mm track in Baltic, and the second part (Rail Baltic 2) consists of the construction of a new north-south double track 1435 mm railway through Baltic.

Rail Baltic in Estonia
Estonia has been evaluating different route options and doing preparatory work like Environmental impact assessments and preliminary design of construction work. Estonian government has also authorized Minister Urve Palo to set up a Rail Baltica holding company, which will be the shareholder of the Baltic joint company. Considering the fact that establishing the Baltic joint company has been “under construction” for two years, the project has proceeded in Estonia satisfactorily.

Rail Baltic in Latvia
Situation is the same as in Estonia, preparatory work has been done. The transport ministry of Latvia has confirmed its readiness for the Baltic joint company, and established a holding company to own one third of the Baltic joint company.

Rail Baltic in Lithuania, from Latvian border to Kaunas
The Lithuanian government decided in June 2014 to align Rail Baltic from Latvian border to Kaunas through Panevezys (the eastern option) instead of Siuaulia (the western option). Unfortunately Prime Minister Sinkevicius pointed out that, depending on the success of Kaunas-Vilnius line’s EU financing application, the decision might be reconsidered. The problem with this comment is, that no decision from Brussels is to be expected until 2017, at the earliest.

Rail Baltic in Lithuania, from Kaunas to Polish border
First the good news. The European gauge railway from Polish border to Kaunas should be finished already in 2015. Some parts of the track were constructed in 2011, and the work was restarted in 2013. There are currently 5 general contractors, who are busy working on the track south of Kaunas. The 373 million euros project is being financed by Nordic Investment Bank, EU structural funds and the Lithuanian Railways.

This is basically good news, but… AECOM’s feasibility study from 2011 suggested a new dual track 1435 mm railway from Tallinn all the way down to Polish/Lithuanian border. However, in this section Lithuania opted to combine refurbishing of old 1520 mm track and construction of a new 1435 mm track.

As we can see in the video, the old 1520 railway has many twists and turns. Building a new 1435 mm railway alongside the old one means, that the maximum speed will be only 120 km/h for passenger trains and 80 km/h for freight trains.



At the moment Lithuanian Railways is looking for tenders for the design and technical construction supervision of Rail Baltica section Rokai – Palemonas – Kaunas. According to the tender document, the project’s targets can be achieved “either by having a double railway line with the 1435mm track inside the 1520mm track or the 1435mm one being built by the side of the 1520mm one”.

That sounds slightly worrying, and a bit more ambitious target for the project would have been advisable. When a double track 240 km/h railway from Tallinn transforms in Kaunas into a single track 120 km/h railway, a severe bottleneck is created. If transportation flows from Vilnius direction are squeezed into the same channel, due to dual-gauge portions of the railway, the situation gets even worse.

A 7 km dual gauge 1435/1520 mm track from Mockava to Sestokai was finished already in 2011

Although the southern section of Rail Baltic looks like a bottleneck, it is still better than no connection at all. The Polish part of Rail Baltic is going to be an upgraded version of an old 1435 mm gauge track, and the top speed over there is going to be 160 km/h. Thus the most optimistic scenarios about travel time from Tallinn to Warsaw and Berlin will not be reality in 2024, when the Baltic part of Rail Baltic should be finished.

Rail Baltic in Lithuania, from Kaunas to Vilnius?
This is how project Rail Baltic looked like in 2007. The alignment of the route has evolved over the years, but the basic reasoning behind the project is still the same.



Even in 2012 the vision was clear. In this video Lithuania’s erstwhile Minister of Transport Eligijus Masiulis describes the benefits and potential of developing intermodal services in Kaunas and smaller cities south of Kaunas, like Marijampole, Sestokai and Mockava. 



Only in 2013 Lithuania came up with the idea of adding Vilnius to Rail Baltic. It started as a humble wish, but in September Lithuanian Ministry of Transport managed to lure Estonian and Latvian ministers into signing a joint declaration, where the ministers, more or less, agreed to adding Vilnius into Rail Baltic and getting 85 % financing for it from Connecting Europe Facility. Unfortunately the ministers had no authority to make such decisions.

In October 2013 Lithuania released a Rail Baltica News video update, where they subtly and skillfully forwarded the message, that Vilnius would indeed be a part of Rail Baltic. The style of the video is a hilarious mix of the Muppet Show and a Hunger Games movie trailer, but the message delivered by the host of the video is, albeit hidden underneath rather complex grammatical structures, clear:

"Ministers responsible for the transport from five countries signed a declaration, in which they agreed in regards to the implementation of the second stage of the Rail Baltica project, also known as Rail Baltica 2, where European standard tracks will stretch across Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland, and as is planned in the white paper, will connect the capital cities of all the nations mentioned above."

As the deadline for setting up the Baltic joint company was missed on 1.1.2014, Lithuania had to change tactics. During spring and early summer 2014 Lithuanians delivered numerous fake positive comments about the progress of Rail Baltic negotiations, and eventually managed to fool Prime Ministers of Estonia and Latvia to sign another Joint statement on 21.6.2014. And once again, the ministers agreed that it would be cool to get financing for Kaunas-Vilnius connection from the Connecting Europe Facility.

How Lithuanians justify their “Connecting Vilnius” agenda in the Rail Baltica project
“According to the white paper, Rail Baltic is meant to connect all the Capital cities.” 
However: Also Finland and Finnish capital Helsinki have been part of Rail Baltic from day one. If Helsinki is connected to Rail Baltic only via ferry, the existing 1520 mm railway from Kaunas to Vilnius should do as well. No-one has (seriously) demanded that Helsinki should be connected to Rail Baltic with a fixed 1435 mm railway as a part of the current Rail Baltic PP27 project. Unless you believe in the official Rail Baltica web page managed by Lithuanian Railways, which boldly suggests a railway bridge from Tallinn to Helsinki.

“Vilnius produces 40 % of GDP in Lithuania.”
However: Critics claim that a major part of Vilnius’ GDP derives from administration. 

“Lithuania needs to protect its national interest, it is just sensible to try maximize the portion of EU funding for the project.”
However: The governments of three Baltic countries committed to the basic terms of this project already in 2011.  

“Lithuania is a sovereign state and will not let Latvians and Estonians decide where and when to build railway lines.” or “We have a decision adopted by Seimas...”
However: It’s not about Estonia and Latvia, or Seimas. The money comes from the European Commission, and they decide how that money should be spent.

Some facts about Lithuania

• Lithuania is a member EU (not the Comecon) and NATO (not The Warsaw Pact), and Lithuania intends to adopt Euro (not Ruble) in the beginning of 2015.
• Lithuania’s geographical position may be problematic in war-time, but it is good for business. Any fluent landline connection from north to continental Europe, or from the Baltic Sea (or Kaliningrad) to East, goes via Lithuania.
• The railway branches Kiev–Minsk–Vilnius–Klaipeda and Kaunas–Kaliningrad carry about 90% of all railway transit cargo and about 70% of the railway passenger transportation in Lithuania.
• The current 1520 mm railway between Kaunas and Vilnius is the best one there is in Lithuania.
• Lithuanians know how to bargain.

Some conclusions

• Lithuania wants to prioritize a 1435 mm branch line from Kaunas to Vilnius, while the capacity of the 1435 mm railway between Kaunas and the Polish border is only a fraction of what it was supposed to be. Thus AECOM's Rail Baltic feasibility calculations are not valid. A smooth connection to Europe was the basic idea behind Rail Baltic, but now it seems that Estonians and Latvians might have to settle with a smooth connection to Vilnius.
• The Baltic countries hope to sign the shareholders’ agreement for RB Rail in October, and submit the finance application to Brussels immediately thereafter. Hopefully that happens. However, if the common joint company cannot be established, submitting separate finance applications would be a bad idea. But then again, the officials at Connecting Europe Facility would probably turn down separate applications anyway.
• It is hard to say what are the real reasons behind Lithuania’s reluctance towards Rail Baltic, but here are some possible explanations:

• Constructing a branch line to Vilnius might nevertheless be a good idea, although no-one outside Vilnius understands it at this moment.

• Lithuania may be just bargaining for a bigger portion of the EU financing of Rail Baltic.

• Maybe politics are involved. Russia does have a lot of influence in Lithuanian Railways (and thus The Ministry of Transport), and maybe the historical tensions between Kaunas and Vilnius could also play a role. It is a funny coincidence, that although Lithuania has disagreed on most things about Rail Baltic, they have never contested the decision to establish the Baltic RB Rail company in Riga. Of course, the natural Lithuanian alternative for Riga would be Kaunas, and that is something that the Lithuanian Transport Ministry, with head quarters in Vilnius, would not like. 

• There has been some speculation about Lithuanian Railways' strategic plan to become the logistic center for transportation to North-Western Russia and St. Petersburg area. If that plan is based solely on 1520 mm railway lines, Rail Baltic might be a competitor for it. But on the other hand, if Lithuanian Railways' future strategy is founded on just a single  customer, they might need to take a look around. Lithuanian Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Energy could educate the Ministry of Transport about the pros and cons of operating with just a single customer or supplier.

Some Youtube videos on Rail Baltic

23.5.2013 MEP Roberts Zile from Latvia and MEP Ivari Padar from Estonia discuss Rail Baltic:

2.10.2013 A Lithuanian language presentation on Rail Baltic:


19.2.2014 A Lithuanian current affairs program about Rail Baltic:


26.5.2014 Helicopter footage from Rail Baltic construction in Marijampoléje:


1.8.2014 Helicopter footage from Rail Baltic construction in Mauručiai: